Is this a good time to invest?
Is this a good time to invest?
Wherever there is crisis in the economy, the question comes up more often than ever.
And during the past month, this has been a common question that came up so I thought to pen my thoughts down..
I had a doctor friend who was recommended to speak to me after he exited the market when Singapore turned DOSCORN Orange and realized his losses because there was so much fear on that day. Herd instincts took over Singapore by storm at the supermarkets just like how it had taken over in the stock markets. My friend figured that I could possibly help him better.
Inexperienced investors can be caught on the wrong side of the coin at that time.
Traders and analysts are trying to predict the trend in the markets of what will pen out over the next 6-12 months, but how many actually get it right? Let’s go back a bit in history. During the 2018 US-china trade war, everyone thought that 2019 will be a washout year, instead it turned out to be one of the better years of investing. And investors who stayed on the sidelines would have missed out on that massive gain of almost 20% in 2019 in a total PORTFOLIO.
The important thing to note is that markets are always forward looking and they would have priced in the forecasts of the markets ahead of time as well.
Anyone who tries to tell you where the markets are heading are mostly making guesses. The honest answer to the title would be that it is impossible to know where the markets will turn on the road ahead given that the markets are also driven by emotional sentiments and mostly not by logic.
With the current growing concerns of the COVID 19, supply chains would be severely disrupted. Those countries that rely heavily on international trade and tourism like Singapore, would be a huge cause of concern. However, just like SARS, H1N1 and the other flu like outbreaks we had in the past 2 decades, over time, life will eventually go back to normal and that is when markets will float back up again.
So since it is almost impossible to predict which countries or economies will go up and down, we believe a well-diversified portfolio across the entire world (US, Asia, Europe, emerging markets) with a good mix of asset allocations that fit your risk profile would be best suited to invest for the long term. Ensure that there is active rebalancing done as well, so that you do not hold on to losses nor get too excited with significant gains. Rebalancing helps to create a smoothening effect to your portfolio.
In fact, any pull backs in the markets present buying opportunities for LONG term investors.
Go back to the basics of planning of patience, prudence, discipline and pray before you make a decision and work with an experienced advisor who has gone through multiple crisis and you will eventually turn out better over the long term.