How do we navigate SVB and the banking crisis?

With what has gone on for the past week about Silicone Valley Bank and some stress levels tested, this is a good time to relook at how we can make great decisions and evergreen investment decisions in both good and bad times.

In times of crisis, there are many concerns and unknowns going forward, but in our practice, we focus on things we know as facts and information that we can control.

We focus on the things we can control and have an understanding of how investment markets work.

What are the strategies we can use to navigate this current environment and achieve your financial goals?

If there will be enough interest for a webinar like this, I will be happy to conduct one.

But in short, here are a few pointers.

1.Uncertainty is unavoidable

Remember that uncertainty is nothing new and investing comes with risks. Consider the events of the last three years alone: a global pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, spiking inflation, and ongoing recession fears. In other words, it may have seemed as if there were plenty of reasons to panic. Despite these concerns, for the three years ending February 28, 2023, the Russell 3000 Index (a broad market-capitalization-weighted index of public US companies) returned an annualized 11.79%, slightly outpacing its average annualized returns of 11.65% since inception in January 1979. The past 3 years certainly make a case for weathering short-term ups and downs and sticking with your plan.

2. Market timing is a hard game to play

Inevitably, when events turn bleak and headlines warn of worse to come, some investors’ thoughts turn to market timing. The idea of using short-term strategies to avoid near-term pain without missing out on long-term gains is seductive, but research repeatedly demonstrates that timing strategies are not effective. The impact of miscalculating your timing strategy can far outweigh the perceived benefits.

When the unexpected happens, many investors feel like they should be doing something with their portfolios. Often, headlines and pundits stoke these sentiments with predictions of more doom and gloom. For the long-term investor, however, planning for what can happen is far more powerful than trying to predict what will happen.

3. Diversification is your best friend.

Nobel laureate Merton Miller famously used to say, “Diversification is your buddy.” Thanks to financial innovations over the last century in the form of mutual funds, and later ETFs, most investors can access broadly diversified investment strategies at very low costs. While not all risks—including a systemic risk such as an economic recession—can be diversified away (see Principle 1 above), diversification is still an incredibly effective tool for reducing many risks investors face. In particular, diversification can reduce the potential pain caused by the poor performance of a single company, industry, or country.¹ As of February 28, Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) represented just 0.04% of the Russell 3000, while regional banks represented approximately 1.70%.² For investors with globally diversified portfolios, exposure to SIVB and other US-based regional banks likely was significantly smaller. If buddying up with diversification is part of your investment plan, headline moments can help drive home the long-term benefits of your approach.

If you are a doctor, high income earner, are affluent and open to have an initial chat with no pressure, just drop me a message to connect with me.

FOOTNOTES

1. ¹Consider that a study of single stock performance in the US from 1927 to 2020 illustrated that the survival of any given stock is far from guaranteed. The study found that on average for 20-year rolling periods, about 18% of US stocks went through a “bad” delisting. The authors note that delisting events can be “good” or “bad” depending on the experience for investors. For example, a stock delisting due to a merger would be a good delist, as the shareholders of that stock would be compensated during the acquisition. On the other hand, a firm that delists due to its deteriorating financial condition would be a bad delist since it is an adverse outcome for investors. Given these results, there is a good case to avoid concentrated exposure to a single company. Source: “Singled Out: Historical Performance of Individual Stocks” (Dimensional Fund Advisors, 2022).
2. ²Regional banks weight reflects the weight of the “Regional Banks” GICS Sub-Industry. GICS was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global.

Should I be shifting more money to cash now?

Given the past few days of volatility, it can feel concerning and scary. I can totally understand that because our human mind is wired to prevent us from making sound decisions when it comes to investing! The reason is our brain wants to protect us from danger, which is a reactive decision making process.

Whenever things are uncertain, that is where it comes the sweet spot between danger and opportunity as the Chinese proverbs say.

Well, if you plan to use the investment funds over the next few years, then maybe it might be better to shift money to cash because we can never know what will happen in the short term.

And if that was the original intention, you should have a lower allocation to equities to begin with.

But if your goals are further out, this can be an opportune time to buy on discounts. We may never be able to buy with the highest discounts but we know in 5-10yrs, on a broad diversification, you know that you would have made a great decision.

The right allocation mix would be the key to successful investing.

Clarity of your goal gives you better management of emotions.

Volatility is the “emotional price you pay” in order to get returns you want over time.

Having allocation to single stocks, single bonds and concentrated areas is generally bad assumption of risks.

If you had just bought into a low cost globally diversified portfolio risk adjusted based on your specific goals, this can be a great time to take advantage of the discounts.

Just like in the picture where you see art pieces, financial planning and investing is both an art and science. We use both abilities to our advantage.

If you are a doctor or wealthy individual who would like to find out how you can grow wealth with peace of mind and confidence, we can always give you a 2nd opinion to see your allocation, with regards to reduced risks, reduced costs, reduced volatility, enhanced diversification and enhanced returns together all at the same time.

Worried About Stocks? Why Long-Term Investing Is Crucial

By David Booth, Executive Chairman and Founder, Dimensional Fund Advisors

We are living in a time of extreme uncertainty and the anxiety that comes along with it. Against the backdrop of war, humanitarian crisis, and economic hardship, it’s natural to wonder what effect these world events will have on our long-term investment performance.

While these challenges certainly warrant our attention and deep concern, they don’t have to be a reason to panic about markets when you’re focused on long-term investing.

Imagine it’s 25 years ago, 1997:

• J.K. Rowling just published the first Harry Potter book.
• General Motors is releasing the EV1, an electric car with a range of 60 miles.
• The internet is in its infancy, Y2K looms, and everyone is worried about the Russian financial crisis.
  

A stranger offers to tell you what’s going to happen over the course of the next 25 years. Here’s the big question: Would you invest in the stock market knowing the following events were going to happen? And could you stay invested?

• Asian contagion
• Russian default
• Tech collapse
• 9/11
• Stocks’ “lost decade”
• Great Recession
• Global pandemic
• Second Russian default
  

With everything I just mentioned, what would you have done? Gotten into the market? Gotten out? Increased your equity holdings? Decreased them?

Well, let’s look at what happened.

From January of 1997 to December of 2021, the US stock market returned, on average, 9.8% a year.¹

A dollar invested at the beginning of the period would be worth about $10.25 at the end of the period.²

These returns are very much in line with what returns have been over the history of the stock market. How can that be? The market is doing its job. It’s science. Investing in markets is uncertain. The role of markets is to price in that uncertainty. 

Investing in markets is uncertain. The role of markets is to price in that uncertainty. There were a lot of negative surprises over the past 25 years, but there were a lot of positive ones as well. The net result was a stock market return that seems very reasonable, even generous. It’s a tribute to human ingenuity that when negative forces pop up, people and companies respond and mobilize to get things back on track.

Human ingenuity created incredible innovations over the past 25 years. Plenty of things went wrong, but plenty of things went right. There’s always opportunity out there. Think about how different life is from the way it was in 1999: the way we work, the way we communicate, the way we live. For example, the gross domestic product of the US in 1997 was $8.6 trillion and grew to $23 trillion in 2021. (Read more about the merits of investing in innovation.)

I am an eternal optimist, because I believe in people. I have an unshakable faith in human beings’ ability to deal with tough times. In 1997, few would have forecast a nearly 10% average return for the stock market. But that remarkable return was available to anyone who could open an investment account, buy a broad-market portfolio, and let the market do its job.

Investing in the stock market is always uncertain. Uncertainty never goes away. If it did, there wouldn’t be a stock market. It’s because of uncertainty that we have a positive premium when investing in stocks vs. relatively riskless assets. In my opinion, reaping the benefits of the stock market requires being a long-term investor.

By investing in a market portfolio, you’re not trying to figure out which stocks are going to thrive, and which aren’t going to be able to recover. You’re betting on human ingenuity to solve problems.

The pandemic was a big blow to the economy. But people, companies and markets adapt. That’s my worldview. Whatever the next blow we face, I have faith that we will meet the challenge in ways we can’t forecast.

I would never try to predict what might happen in the next 25 years. But I do believe the best investment strategy going forward is to keep in mind the lesson learned from that stranger back in 1997: Don’t panic. Invest for the long term.

FOOTNOTES

1. ¹In US dollars. S&P 500 Index annual returns 1997–2021. S&P data © 2022 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.
2. ²Data presented for the growth of $1 are hypothetical and assume reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This value is for educational purposes only and is not indicative of any investment.